The Today Show Plunges Into Turmoil: Ratings Tumble as Channel Nine Scrambles in a Post-Stefanovic Era
When Channel Nine abruptly severed ties with Karl Stefanovic, a fixture on the Today Show for over two decades, the network likely anticipated some blowback. What they are experiencing, however, is a dramatic viewer exodus, as loyal audiences essentially vote with their remotes.
According to Peter Meakin—a seasoned television executive and former head of News and Current Affairs across Seven, Nine, and 10—the network is facing a harsh reality. “I think they are being actively punished for letting Karl go,” Meakin observed, noting that finding a suitable successor is shaping up to be a monumental headache.
## The Numbers Don’t Lie: A Ratings Freefall
The impact of Stefanovic’s departure is starkly reflected in the latest viewing figures from OzTAM:
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Before the Exit: In the seven weeks leading up to Stefanovic’s initial break, the Today Show commanded an average audience of 305,000.
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The Aftermath: Since his disappearance from the screen, that average has slumped to 278,000—a noticeable 9% drop.
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The Competition: Rival program Sunrise continues to dominate the breakfast television landscape with a robust 441,000 viewers, while ABC News Breakfast trails with 230,000.
Meakin candidly described the Today Show’s ratings as being in “freefall,” attributing the decline to viewers feeling outraged over the veteran host’s treatment. This sentiment is further fueled by narratives framing the firing as an attack on free speech—a claim Meakin dismisses, pointing out that in the controversial interview, Stefanovic himself had very little to say.
Peter Meakin says Stefanovic has a lot of supporters, who are punishing Channel Nine by turning off the Today Show. (Australian Story)
## The Catalyst: A Podcast Gone Wrong
Stefanovic’s unraveling at Nine was ultimately triggered by an episode of his independent podcast, which has since been scrubbed from the internet. The episode featured an interview with far-right UK activist Tommy Robinson.
While Meakin acknowledges that Robinson makes for “compelling” television and a fascinating subject for seasoned interrogators like Sarah Ferguson or Tracy Grimshaw, he criticized Stefanovic’s handling of the chat. Instead of holding his subject to the fire with hard-hitting questions, Stefanovic offered a frictionless platform.
“Karl just gave him a platform and essentially said, ‘Oh, aren’t you wonderful?'” Meakin remarked. “The more contentious a figure is, the more prepared an interviewer must be.”
The fallout has spilled over into his other ventures as well. Eddie McGuire recently confirmed that Stefanovic’s stint on the ARN radio program The Long Weekend was “short and sweet,” ending after just two episodes.
The Today Show’s ratings have declined since the axing of host Karl Stefanovic. (Getty WireImage: Don Arnold)
## The Search for the Next Star
Channel Nine’s casting woes are compounding. Not only do they need to replace the magnetic, albeit controversial, energy of Stefanovic, but they must also find cover for co-host Sarah Abo, who is scheduled for maternity leave in August.
Meakin warns that a standard, straight-laced news journalist won’t cut it for breakfast TV. “You need a splash of color and excitement. Karl wasn’t wrong when he called some modern television personalities ‘beige.'”
His top pick for the coveted chair? 2GB Breakfast host Ben Fordham. Meakin praises Fordham’s vibrant personality and relentless work ethic, though he questions whether Fordham would actually want the gig—or if Nine has the budget to secure him. Despite these hurdles, Meakin emphasizes that free-to-air breakfast television remains highly profitable, dismissing claims that the medium is a dying “horse and cart.”
Meakin says Channel Nine should be looking to replace Stefanovic with 2GB Breakfast host Ben Fordham. (AAP: Joel Carrett)
## Caught Between Two Worlds: Mainstream Media vs. The Digital Wild West
Professor Catharine Lumby, a Media expert at the University of Sydney, offers a deeper look at why Stefanovic’s podcasting endeavor clashed so violently with his TV persona.
Breakfast television relies on a delicate balance: it must be engaging but broadly inoffensive to appeal to the masses. Podcasting and social media, on the other hand, run on a completely different engine.
“In the attention economy of social media, the algorithm rewards high emotion—whether people violently love or hate you,” Professor Lumby explained. “Karl found himself caught between two fiercely different spheres.”
On Channel Nine, Stefanovic was packaged and sold as the “lovable larrikin” that mothers adored. On his podcast, however, diving into highly polarizing political waters shattered that carefully curated image.
Furthermore, Professor Lumby notes a shifting demographic tide. Today’s bright young minds—her media and law students—are entirely abandoning traditional newspapers, free-to-air television, and radio in favor of the hyper-polarized world of social media for their news.
Given Sunrise’s absolute dominance in the current ratings war, Professor Lumby suggests that simply swapping out a host might not be enough for Nine. Instead of just finding a new face, the Today Show might desperately need a complete, ground-up reset of its content and demographic strategy to survive this turbulent new era.
Professor Catharine Lumby says Stefanovic has found himself caught between two very different spheres. (Supplied: Catharine Lumby)